NFL Super Bowl Predictions: 2009-2010 season preview

By Tom Maxwell
July 2nd, 2009

Betfair Predicts NFL expert Tom Maxwell takes a look ahead to all things gridiron ahead of the new season…

As has been seen over the past couple of years the NFL is incredibly unpredictable. After two consecutive classic Super Bowls the season of 2010 has a lot to live up to, but with the possible change to the salary cap rules there is scope for another cracking season.

Could the Steelers do it again? Will Arizona build on their fairytale run? Will Tom Brady will be fit? Will Reggie Bush come to play? Will the Lions win a game? Another incredible season of NFL is on the horizon.

AFL:

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Super Bowl champions boast the best defence around and if their offence finds the form that it did during the crucial plays last year then they will once again be contenders. Mike Tomlin has kept almost exactly the same squad he had last season so expect them to be strong again.

Tennessee Titans
The Titans had an amazing season last year, coming from nowhere to barely lose a game, but their aging defence might cause them to go backwards this year.

New England Patriots
The most successful team of this decade will need to have their star quarterback Tom Brady fully fit for the whole campaign after missing out on most of last year, and although they are another team who are not getting any younger, they are still a potent force and have the experience to cause problems in the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers
The Chargers will hope to finally live up to their potential this year but will rely on their quarterback Phillip Rivers performing to the same level he did last year, throwing 34 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions. They will need to get off to a better start than in previous seasons and Norv Taylor will be reminding his team of this throughout their pre-season.

Other contenders
Dark horses may include the Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars. Any of these guys could put a run together and produce another fairytale Super Bowl like Arizona did last year.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Lions will be hoping to not end another season without a victory. Last year’s team broke all records for the worse season in NFL history, this year they have a new rookie quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who they took as the first pick in the draft, and have broken all records to pay him a reported $68 million over 6 years. There will be no expectations for the Lions but their new coach, Jim Schwartz, will be looking to build a team that are able to challenge in the coming years.

AFC:

New York Giants
Plenty of problems with their receiver position but should be strong enough to make it to the playoffs at least. Still a very dangerous team.

New Orleans Saints
Could well be a good shout for a Super Bowl place. It will be interesting to see which Reggie Bush turns up this year and whether Pierre Thomas can step up if Bush fails to get fit. If their defence stays strong they will have a really good year.

Chicago Bears
The city of Chicago will be extremely excited about the prospect of having this team aiming for the Super Bowl this year. The defence will be as good as it always is in Chicago but the excitement of their new quarterback and Pro-Bowler, Jay Cutler, should be enough to get the buzz going early in the season. Although he doesn’t have any world class receivers to aim for there should be enough to get them into the playoffs and perhaps carry them to their 10th Super Bowl title.

Arizona Cardinals
After such an incredible year last year there will be higher expectations of Ken Whisenhunt this time around. They should be there or thereabouts again but without an improvement to the running game they might struggle to get through the playoffs again.

Dark horses: Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks

My pick for the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints to beat Pittsburgh Steelers

Tags: AFC, AFC predictions, AFL, AFL predictions, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, Chicago Bears, gridiron predictions, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, new york giants, nfl, nfl predictions, Pittsburgh Steelers, prediction exchange, Prediction Markets, rizona Cardinals, San Diego Chargers, sports predictions, super bowl, super bowl predictions, Tennessee Titans Posted in Blog, Prediction Markets, Sports, nfl, super bowl |

Super Bowl XLIII Betting Preview: Cardinals may have enough to upset the odds

By Andy Richmond
January 31st, 2009

It’s all friendly in Tampa at the moment but that will change when the Steelers and Cardinals get down to business on Sunday night. Andy Richmond runs through the odds and betting before kick-off.

We started with 32 teams and now we are down to the final two - it’s the Cardinals versus the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII.

This is a contest that few would have predicted and sees Pittsburgh going for their sixth Super Bowl victory against an Arizona team going for their first.

Great storylines abound and the major one is the matchup of Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt, a onetime Steelers assistant, against his old team. It also features the world-class passing attack of Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald facing a Steelers defence that ranked no. 1 in the regular season in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. A mirror-image of styles, tactics and attitudes awaits us.

The Cardinals are a surprise, only the second 9-7 team to reach a Super Bowl - they staggered rather than strode into the post-season but have been transformed in their last three outings. Underdogs in all of their three play-off outings, they have rattled up 95 points via their explosive offence led by QB Kurt Warner and his primary receiver Larry Fitzgerald, whose 419 receiving yards is an NFL record for the post-season.

Warner will be playing in his third Super Bowl after a mostly brilliant season in the Cardinals’ precision, rhythm passing attack. He has been even better in the post-season, cutting down on his mistakes and getting the ball to WR Larry Fitzgerald, despite playing against defences designed to take the star receiver away.

Outsmarting Warner will play a key part in the Steelers defensive plan, either blitzing him and make him move around out of his comfort zone or drop seven or eight and play coverage, challenging him to out pass them. Warner is great at reading blitzes and getting rid of the ball quickly, so the Steelers must be sure they can get to him if they do play a “blitzburgh” style defence.

Whilst the offence has been vaunted it’s the defence that has been maligned, but as a group they have stepped up over the past few weeks and held some of the NFC’s best at bay - most notably with their run defence. Steelers RB Willie Parker could be in for a tough day against the rejuvenated Arizona defence.

Pittsburgh play it tough on both sides of the ball, typified by their bruising game against Baltimore in the AFC Championship game. Their number one ranked NFL defence is the rock which the Steelers game plan is built upon, and stars abound on this side of the ball. Much of the Steelers’ defensive success starts with their pass rush and the run-stopping ability of their front seven. The secondary is no slouch, but SS Troy Polamalu is the clear difference maker. He’s known for doing his best work up near the line, but Polamalu has improved his deep coverage and he’ll need to with Warner throwing his bombs to Fitzgerald.

Offensively, Pittsburgh will run a conservative, run-orientated offence led by Parker, who needs to get to the outside to prove effective and use his greatest weapon - his speed.

QB Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t made mistakes in the post-season, and the Steelers are dangerous when he’s on the mark. He throws very well on the run and can improvise outside of the pocket as well as any QB in the NFL. If he can avoid the turnovers that plagued him in the regular season (15 INTs, seven lost fumbles) against a Cardinals defence that has forced 12 turnovers in three play-off games, the Steelers could have a distinct advantage.

If his main wide receiver Hines Ward, who was injured in the Baltimore game, does miss or is even poised to play a limited role on Sunday then the Steelers will be more inclined to use their big play guy WR Santonio Holmes, with his breakaway ability, Holmes can change a game, as he did on a 65-yard TD catch in the first half vs. the Ravens. In the play-offs alone he is averaging nearly 24 yards per catch.

The Cardinals will also need to defend TE Heath Miller, who has had a good postseason and who might play a bigger role if Ward is out. Miller runs the seams well and can separate from linebackers. The Cardinals struggled to contain Eagles TE Brent Celek and expect Miller to play an important part of the Steelers offence on Sunday.

So we have a study of opposites and a fascinating match-up - both teams have the ability and desire to win here are the keys to each of them winning…

Steelers:
Don’t give up big offensive plays
Run the ball effectively
Stop the Cardinals running
More Super Bowl experience

Cardinals:
The offensive line must pick up the Pittsburgh blitz
Get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald
The experience of Kurt Warner
One more big game for the Cardinals “D”
Whichever executes those better will be the victor in the search for the ultimate prize Super Bowl XLIII.

Betting Advice: Points average in the last 10 Super Bowls is 46.9 - Pittsburgh usually feature in games below that average - back under 46.5 match points at 1.98.

Twenty-two out of 42 Super Bowls have seen both teams lead at least once - as a trading position lay Pittsburgh pre game at 1.44 - the price does not reflect the ability that the Cardinals have to win this game or push the Steelers close.

Be prepared to assess your position at half time - 76 per cent of teams leading at half time go on to win the Super Bowl.

Posted in nfl |

Super Bowl Blog: Betting thoughts on the big game from Nick Shiambouros in Tampa

By Nick Shiambouros
January 31st, 2009

Our man on the ground is suggesting a Kurt Warner inspired upset can take place in Florida on Sunday. Find out how and why here…

The temperatures dipped in the bay area on the eve of the 43rd Superbowl, but that did not stop the continued celebrations that took place all over this beautiful city.

Ex-Chicago coach Mike Ditka hosted his annual Grid Iron Greats dinner and the Hall of Famer had over 100 NFL players both past and present on hand. The steaks were tasty and a great deal of money was raised for some very important causes.

Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt put his team through their final paces on Friday but was slightly concerned about the Cardinals losing focus before kickoff on Sunday. I really think Whisenhunt has done an admirable job with this team in the final few days before the game. At every practice session I have seen the Cardinals have looked very sharp and extremely focused as they made their final preparations for the game. I would have to give the slight edge to Whisenhunt over his counterpart Mike Tomlin with regards to final preparation.

The Steelers have taken a far more relaxed approach to the build up with a very light workload this week. Coach Tomlin has taken a very different approach and his softer style may yet pay dividends. One person who did not practice was Hines Ward, who is still nursing an injury, but Tomlin claims he will be fine for Sunday. I must say I am not totally convinced that he will be as effective as usual if he starts.

I believe that this game will be a lot closer that some people are predicting for many reasons, but I think Kurt Warner holds the key to the outcome.

If Warner can pick up the blitz early enough then that would give Arizona a huge edge. He has a great, accurate arm and Larry Fitzgerald has proven he can catch the ball from almost anywhere. The Cards will be looking to strike early, and I imagine that offensive coordinator Todd Haley will have some big plays in his book to get an early lead. I think Arizona may gamble to deliver a body blow to Pittsburgh and knock them out of stride early.

Pittsburgh have the very strong Ben Roethlisberger at the controls and he is more of a pocket quarterback than Warner. He can stand inside, delivering very accurate balls to his receivers and is hugely dangerous when left alone. Roethlisberger is also very patient and wont panic under extreme heat from Arizona.

I am going to give the slight edge to Arizona on Sunday to cause the upset. Currently they are trading at 3.25 on the exchange which will look very big if they score first.

I think this high octane offence will strike early and the 2.22 to score first looks tempting. Warner will try to settle his troops early and, as previously reported, he is the spiritual leader of this team so a lot rests on his veteran shoulders. The stage is set for what I think is going to be a great game.

It has truly been an amazing week here in Tampa with so many great events taking place in the bay area and I have been lucky enough to attend a couple. I am saddened to report that this year’s Playboy party was cancelled due to the economic downtrend. Once again I have been foiled but rest assured I will be in Miami next year to try and achieve that elusive goal. Good luck to everyone and enjoy the game.

Posted in nfl |

The Betfair Super Bowl podcast

By Michael Robb
January 30th, 2009

There are over fifty markets on Betfair for Superbowl XVlll, including markets on each one of the four quarters. Dave Farrar and Andy Richmond of Betting@Betfair cover every angle of the betting as they welcome special guests to discuss Superbowl XLIII.

With contributions from Sky Sports NFL commentator Nick Halling as well as US sports journalist and broadcaster Sean Wheelock, it’s your one-stop shop for value at the Great Show on Earth.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

Tags: Arizona Cardinals, nfl, Pittsburgh Steelers, super bowl, tampa bay, vince lombardi trophy, XLIII Posted in Blog, nfl, super bowl |

Pittsburgh out in front as race for Super Bowl reaches climax

By Michael Robb
January 30th, 2009

Pittsburgh are the clear favourites to win Super Bowl XLIII on Sunday, according to Betfair customers. The side from the Steel City has a 69 percent chance of winning in Tampa, with the Arizona Cardinals 31 percent.

Neither side competing in Sunday’s showpiece was given much chance at the start of the season. The Steelers were given a four percent chance of going all the way on the opening day and the Cardinals just one percent.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is the favourite to be MVP, a 33 percent change. His opposite number, Kurt Warner, is second favourite for the award on 18 percent. Steelers running back Willie Parker is the only other player with a double-digit chance, currently on 12 percent.

The Steelers are the favourites but the Cardinals are a team capable of beating anyone on their day. They have already proved Betfair traders wrong three times in the post-season this year – beating the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles – but customers clearly think Sunday is a step too far.

Whether or not it’s going to be as exciting a game as last year remains to be seen, but with more markets for Super Bowl Sunday on Betfair than ever before there is still huge interest in the showpiece event.

To win Super Bowl XLIII – Betfair predicts: 69% Pittsburgh Steelers, 31% Arizona Cardinals

To be Super Bowl XLIII MVP – Betfair predicts: 33% Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), 18% Kurt Warner (ARI), 12% Willie Parker (PIT), 8% Larry Fitzgerald (ARI), 5% Troy Polamalu (PIT), 4% Hines Ward (PIT), Santonio Holmes (PIT), Anquan Boldin (ARI), Edgerrin James (ARI), 3% James Harrison (PIT), 2% J J Arrington (ARI), Tim Hightower (ARI), 1% Nate Washington (PIT), Steve Breaston (ARI), James Farrior (PIT), Mewelde Moore (PIT), Heath Miller (PIT), Adrian Wilson (ARI), Jeff Reed (PIT)

Tags: Arizona Cardinals, nfl, Pittsburgh Steelers, super bowl Posted in Blog, Prediction Markets, nfl, super bowl |

Super Bowl Betting: The six pack sub-plot

By Andy Richmond
January 30th, 2009

While most analysts will be focusing on the clash between the high octane Arizona Cardinals offence and the bruising Pittsburgh Steelers defence, Andy Richmond is keen to flip the equation on its head to find an equally absorbing battle between the Cardinals defence and the Steelers offence.

The Cardinals’ defence and the Steelers’ offence have been much maligned at various stages of the season but both have stepped up throughout the post season to deliver their teams to the big day. To my mind it will be this sub-plot that provides the key to Superbowl XLIII.

Heath Miller, Santonio Holmes and Willie Parker are three parts of the Pittsburgh offence that will need to function effectively on Sunday.

Running back Parker’s season has been blighted by injury and he has been operating behind an struggling offensive line. Parker doesn’t fit the mould of the majority of running backs his size. At 5-10, 209 pounds, he’s not big, but his no-nonsense, straight-ahead running style is more reminiscent of far bigger running backs. And make no mistake, Parker is the clear-cut No. 1 horse in the Steelers’ RB stable. He carried the ball 27 and 24 times in Pittsburgh’s two post-season games against the Chargers and Ravens. His speed kills defences and, if he does find a seam on Sunday, then watch him go.

Tight end Heath Miller is another unassuming cog in the Pittsburgh offence. He was a factor in the Steelers’ 35-24 divisional play-off victory over the Chargers, catching three passes for 37 yards, including an eight-yard TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger in the third quarter that gave the Steelers a 21-10 lead. One week later in the hard-hitting AFC championship win over the Ravens, he made his presence felt with three catches for 62 yards, including a long of 30 yards.

The Eagles used their tight end to great effect against the Cardinals and expect Miller to play a prominent part in a large amount of snaps on Sunday.

To conclude my Pittsburgh trio, WR Santonio Holmes, combines excellent quickness with outstanding running and catching ability. He’s a very good deep route receiver, and in three NFL seasons, he’s averaging 16.6 yards per reception.

Holmes is a versatile receiver with an ability to make quick and decisive moves. He can evade and break tackles. He will catch the ball coming across the middle, has good hands and will block downfield. Of course, Holmes is also a dangerous factor in the return game.

At various times the Cardinals defence has had its problems but throughout the post-season they have denied some of the better offences and stepped up on their regular season play.

Three of the leaders in that improved effort are sure to feature on Sunday if the Cardinals are to win. They are cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, safety Adrian Wilson and defensive tackle Darnell Dockett.

Rodgers-Cromartie has progressed since entering the Cardinals line-up on a permanent basis in week nine. He has covered two Pro Bowl wide receivers (Atlanta’s Roddy White, Carolina’s Steve Smith) and outstanding Eagles rookie DeSean Jackson. The Cardinals rookie won a high percentage of the battles in all three matchups. Rodgers-Cromartie looks to have added weight without losing any speed - and he has made six interceptions in his last nine games. He has outstanding quickness an uncanny ability to find the ball and is a very good tackler.

In 230-pound Adrian Wilson, the Cards boast an enforcer in the secondary that neither of the Steelers’ previous playoff opponents did. For that matter, Wilson packs a punch from his strong safety position that perhaps no other NFL team boasts.

Although solid in coverage, Wilson is at his best close to the line of scrimmage. He operates with a linebacker’s mentality, and his muscular physique makes him look the part.

He’ll play a huge part in containing the Pittsburgh run on Sunday and the dangerous Willie Parker as the emergence of Rodgers-Cromartie has allowed him to creep closer to the line of scrimmage and play far more aggressively than before.

The the final player I’ll mention is DE Darnell Dockett. Dockett, one of the game’s most disruptive players at his position, could have a major impact on this game. The Steelers’ offensive line has had problems with quick interior pass rushers in the last two seasons, and Dockett could give Pittsburgh major problems.

So pay attention to this six pack on Sunday as they may have more than a bit part in this play in four quarters.

Posted in nfl |

Super Bowl Betting: Look for the special bets as Steelers contain Cardinals

By Andy Richmond
January 30th, 2009

From the straightforward to the eclectic, betting on Superbowl XLIII springs to life this week with a plethora of markets available on Betfair.com. Andy Richmond recommends the best special bets.

Fifty markets are already available on the game plus markets on each quarter, so there should be something for everyone. I’ve been picking my way through the maze to provide some interesting wagers for Sunday night.

The game could be a lot closer than the odds suggest. Place kickers have assumed a prominent role in the Super Bowl in recent years with four of the last seven games decided by three points. A repeat scenario here would place the spotlight on both Arizona’s Neil Rackers and Pittsburgh’s Jeff Reed.

Both kickers have good records this year and in conditions that will be conducive to kicking, certainly better than those Pittsburgh kicker Reed usually ply’s his trade in. The first of the special bets that catches the eye is to back the longest field goal yardage at over 43.5 yards. Both kickers have a regular season long of over 50 yards so will not lack leg strength and I’m sure both coaches will be keen to take the points on offer on more than one occasion.

The winning margin is a much discussed number especially in relation to the match handicap market but as already stated this game is a lot closer than it looks on paper and whilst Pittsburgh are capable of winning this game, they don’t tend to blow sides away with explosive offence, relying more on their stifling defence to win them the game. Therefore, next up in the specials category is a lay of Pittsburgh to win by over 12 points.

I’m drawn by the balance of this game to the Most Valuable Player (MVP) market - or Man of the Match in UK terms - the usual recipients of this award are offensive - quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs, but defensive players do and can win this award. Dexter Jackson, the Tampa Bay free safety, was the last in 2003.

If Pittsburgh, do win the game, I’m convinced that it will be because their number one ranked defence has held the Cardinals explosive offence in check. That will mean some MVP performances from any number of Steelers’ players. Not least amongst these is their all-pro safety Troy Polamalu, who is rarely out of the game and is instantly recognisable with his long flowing hair, in fact I would not put anyone off having a few speculative bets at big odds on any member of the Pittsburgh “D”.

At a shorter price for the Cardinals, WR Larry Fitzgerald would be my MVP pick, not only is he extremely liked by the media for his modest and unassuming manner (most unlike an NFL wide receiver!) but he is a wonderful talent and will be the focal point of many Cardinals attacks. He’s also just broken legendary WR Jerry Rice’s post season record for receiving yards so his confidence is high.

Touchdown scorer markets are also popular - first and last TD markets are available, but I thought I saw some value in the to score a TD market in the shape of two Steelers and one Cardinals player. The Steelers duo would be WR Santonio Holmes and TE Heath Miller who provides a safe pair of hands in the end zone. Cardinals RB Tim Hightower scored the TD that proved to be the winner in the NFC Championship game and I expect him to be used in similar situations on Sunday.

Last but not least, back to Santonio Holmes to gain more than 54.5 receiving yards. This bet takes on extra significance if WR Hines Ward plays a limited role on Sunday as Holmes will take even more prominence in the Steelers offensive set-up. Holmes is a dangerous WR and can gain big yards after the catch and that makes saying that he will have more than 54.5 reception yards very enticing.

Recommendations:

Back longest field goal over 43.5 yards at 2.02
Lay Pittsburgh win by over 12 points at 3.25
MVP - Troy Polamalu (Steelers) at 20.0 or Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) at 9.5
To Score a TD - Santonio Holmes (Steelers) at 2.64 and Heath Miller (Steelers) at 3.0, Tim Hightower (Cardinals) 2.9
Back Santonio Holmes more than 54.5 receiving yards at anything above 1.96

Posted in nfl |

Super Bowl Blog: Steelers take over Tampa but Whisenut keeps Cardinal’s burning

By Nick Shiambouros
January 28th, 2009

It’s Media Day in Tampa and Nick Shiambouros of Betting@Betfair is in the scrum as reporters from all over the world fire questions ranging from the sublime to the ridiculous at Super Bowl 43’s key players. Meanwhile, the city is awash with black and gold, Pittsburgh brace themselves for injury woes and our man mourns the Lingerie Bowl…

Fans from all over the country have been streaming in to Tampa Bay today as the build up to the big game gathers momentum. The temperature in the area is a very comfortable 78F but the forecast is for a cooler 60F come game time.

Judging by the number of gold and black shirts in town, Cardinal fans are definitely outnumbered by the Steelers’. I spoke to fans from as far away as Alaska but almost all of the Cardinal fans I met were from the state Arizona and they conceded that it would be more of a home game for Pittsburgh.

The Cardinals have kept a low profile so far but there was no room to hide today as the traditional Media Day got underway. This is a great American spectacle as journalists from all over the world get to ask the craziest questions they like to both teams. The players have fun to and it was a great way to spend a few hours.

Kurt Warner, the veteran quarterback for Arizona, tried to keep his team focused by saying that they don’t need to think about the parties at the moment. He made the point that if they win a Superbowl ring they can get a free pass to any party forever.

Ben Roethelsburger, the Pittsburgh quarterback, said that he was trying not to think about the importance of the game but admitted it was hard not to.

It was good to see Steelers’ defensive lineman Max Starks, who played for the University of Florida. He is the only Gator in the team but said that he will never forget what being a Gator really means as he reminisced about his college days.

News has emerged that Pittsburgh receiver Hines Ward will be wearing a brace on his sprained knee which has been affecting his movement. He played the injury down but his participation on Sunday must be in some doubt. Hine is a vital piece of the Pittsburgh offense and coach Mike Tomlin must be concerned.

The Cardinals will practice Wednesday and Thursday according to head coach Ken Whisenhunt. He says that the practice will be have a pre-season feel to it and it will be quite serious. I think this is a good move by Whisenhunt as things can get a little rusty after a two week break.

There is no love lost between Ken Whisenhunt and his former team, Pittsburgh. It is rumored that Whisenhunt and Ben Roethelsburger did not get on well at all and this was a major factor for his departure.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have had all the media attention this week and many analysts have written Arizona off already. I would not be so presumptuous as a fire is clearly burning inside Ken Whisenhunt and I believe he has a clear game plan for Sunday. Larry Fitzgerald is certain to be part of his thoughts and, with him on your side, anything is possible.

On a final note, I am sad to report that the sixth Lingerie Bowl will not be taking place this week due to a problem with the location according to a spokesperson from the Lingerie Football League. At least I have time to make other arrangements for Saturday.

Tags: Arizona Cardinals, Betfair Predicts, nfl, Pittsburgh Steelers, prediction exchange, Prediction Markets, super bowl Posted in Blog, Prediction Markets, nfl, super bowl |

The Number’s Game: A brief history of Super Bowl betting

By Richard Douglas
January 28th, 2009

Money surrounds the Super Bowl like no other sporting event. Richard Douglas explores the history of gambling on America’s big day and checks out the bewildering array of bets available on number XLIII.

Blame Mike Dikta. The abrasive coach of the Chicago Bears said that his side would definitely not run the ball in the Superbowl XX. As a result, the odds on the William ‘The Refrigerator’ Perry scoring a touchdown started out at 21.0.

Dikta, of course, was fibbing. The Bears barged their way to a one-sided 46-10 win against the New England Patriot with Perry reaching the endzone in his second carry.

And, thus, Superbowl betting was born.

Since then anything and everything has been wagered on. For example, the smart money was on Billy Joel to exceed the existing record of one minute 44 seconds for the pre-match rendition of the national anthem ahead of Superbowl XLI.

But the smart money had clearly stayed up far too long cramming for exams and taking ProPlus. In fact the piano man came in at a rapid one minute 33 seconds.

Betfair have a whopping 55 markets available on Sunday’s game. The Pittsburgh Steelers (1.43) are the clear favourites to beat the Arizona Cardinals (3.25). But everyone will have an informed opinion. They kind of have to, coverage is not just wall-to-wall but ceiling to floor. The Conference winners don’t tell the on-pitch cameraman they are going to THE show for nothing as they leave the field.

Ironically, while money has ruined the FA Cup by pumping up the Premier League to obscene proportions, American sports have no such scruples.

Remember sunny May afternoons at Wembley, meaningful games full of heroes, well multiply that 10 and you have a handle on the gratifying feeling the Superbowl creates deep down in the average American’s gut. And that is quite a journey.

The immediate pre-match media circus began on Monday. But, in reality, this game has been planned for since the season began. A 30-second advert during the game will cost a cool $3 million this season.

Traditionally Anheuser-Busch, makers of Budweiser, take four six-minute slots. As a result, their sales have spiked by an average of 17 per cent in an otherwise dead month.

It is not surprising. Around 130-140 million Americans will watch some part of the game. The often-quoted figure of one billion viewers worldwide is a myth however. This is the potential amount of people who could see ‘the show’ not the actual amount.

However, everyone in America can consume the Superbowl. It is estimated that 30,000 people go to the host city every year with no intention of attending the game - many of them businessmen. The best way to get the attention of a top executive this week is to follow him to Tampa. The city will host a number of conferences and events in conjunction with, but not directly linked to, the game.

The same applies to the half-time show. Bruce Springsteen is on the podium this year, he has an album out next week and a world tour coming up. Eight per cent of television viewers say that is the main reason for watching - but then 26 per cent say the commercials are the best entertainment. Less than half plump for the game.

But those who are interested can vote for the Most Valuable Player via their mobile phone or computer from the start of the fourth quarter. It is not that democratic - the viewers contribute to only 20 per cent of the overall result, votes from 16 on-site journalists and commentators make up the remaining 80 per cent.

This idea was introduced in 2001 but has hardly changed the pattern of results. In total, 22 of the 43 MVPs have been quarterbacks and likewise so have four of the eight since that year. However, it is interesting that public voting has coincided with two wide receivers lifting the Pete Rozell Trophy - there had only been three others in the previous 35 years.

Given that only player one the losing side has ever been MVP, there may be a little value in the Steelers’ widemen Santonio Holmes (17.0), Hines Ward (17.0) or even Nate Washington (42.0) taking the honours this time.

Have a trawl through the others previews on Betfair and scour the stats. In researching this article yours truly has barely begun to unearth the full amount of information available to guide your wagers.

The stereotypical US sports fan is a stats-obsessed male who watches the game constantly on television and whose opinions vary from ’strong’ to ‘bloody strong’ with a short stops at ‘blinkered’ and ‘obsessed’. Sound familiar?

Put it another way. There have been 42 Superbowls and I now know the tally of the pre-match coin tosses read tails 22, heads 20.

This is the world’s show and a little time on the world wide web could leave you with a little of the wealth.

Posted in nfl |

Trust me - I’m working on a Playboy ticket

By Nick Shiambouros
January 26th, 2009

The sun is shining, the celebs are arriving, the steaks are to die for and an invite to Hefner’s house might yet be forthcoming… Nick Shiambouros from Betting@Betfair soaks up the big match atmosphere in the first of his Super Bowl blogs from Tampa.

You couldn’t wish for better weather here in Tampa as the fans start to arrive for this year’s Super Bowl.

Tampa last hosted the Super Bowl in 2001 and it’s great to see the city rewarded for the remarkable job they did then. Outside the airport a fleet of limousines await the rich and famous who assemble once a year for this fantastic event while at the beautiful Raymond James stadium, an army of media trucks from all over the world are already in place.

There is so much to do here in one week that you need serious stamina to last the journey. The best place to start is the Marriot Waterside which is home to the NFL for the week. This hotel is the nerve centre of the Superbowl.

The city boasts a wonderful selection of restaurants but for me a trip to Bern’s Steak House is an absolute must. With the largest selection of wine in the world, this place is truly a one off. The steaks are to die for.

If you are looking for something more casual then Hooters is the place to go. The chain started here in the bay area and is a great place for a bite. Not to mention the beautiful servers.

The list of Super Bowl parties is endless but the jewel is the Playboy party. This ticket is one of the hottest in town but trust me - I’m working on it.

Of course, the real reason for being here is Sunday’s game between two contrasting teams. The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl for the first time with their explosive offense and the Pittsburgh Steelers with that mighty defense make for a fascinating encounter.

The Cardinals, lead by Super Bowl winner Kurt Warner , are really a product of the 2004 draft which included receiver Larry Fitzgerald. In addition to him linebacker Karlos Dansby from Auburn and defensive tackle Darnell Docket from Florida State were huge signings.

Kurt Warner has been hailed as the team’s prophet and his leadership and experience is a pretty big reason why the Cardinals have made it to the final game.

The Pittsburgh Steelers made it to the Super Bowl by beating a weary Baltimore team and are lead by quarterback Ben Roethlisburger. Coach Mike Tomlin has done exceptionally well to take this team to Tampa and this 34-year-old has more than filled previous coach Bill Cowher’s shoes. Pitsburgh have won the Super Bowl a record five times in their long history.

Cardinal’s head coach Ken Whisenhunt was the offensive coordinator for Pittsburgh when they won the Super Bowl three years ago. Whisenhunt left to join Arizona after he was passed over for the job as Pittsburgh head coach and needs no more motivation to win.

Pittsburgh are currently trading at 70 percent on the exchange but the price is not set in stone and things can change dramatically throughout the week. I will have plenty to report from Tampa as the clock ticks towards game time.

Tags: Arizona Cardinals, nfl, Pittsburgh Steelers, super bowl, tampa bay Posted in Blog, Prediction Markets, nfl, super bowl |