The Ashes 2009 Predictions: Who are the key players to watch?

By Tom Maxwell
July 3rd, 2009

Betfair Predicts’ cricketer gives us his take on the key men this summer…

England:

Swann:
He has bowled so well this year and loves to bowl at left handers. Ponting and Clarke will give him a hard time but if he can tie down Hughes, Katich and Hussey England might have some real success. Don’t be surprised if Strauss brings him on early on the first morning in Cardiff if England are in the field.

Flintoff:
He has been in the press for all the wrong reasons this week but will be looking forward to getting back on the pitch to show England that he is totally ready for these Ashes. His bowling is going to be crucial, especially as he has had some great success against Ponting in the past and if the Aussie skipper struggles early on in the series then England might find themselves in a strong position going into tests 3 and 4. His batting has been poor in recent years but England will be hoping he can put together the same sort of partnerships with Matt Prior that he did with Geraint Jones in 2005 which took two tests away from Australia at crucial times. Flintoff doesn’t need to be in for long to cause a game to move in England’s direction.

Australia:

Ponting:
The Australian captain will be hoping for an improved personal performance from 2005 and on the field will be expecting to lead his more inexperienced players from the front. He averages 56 in tests and will be hoping to add to his 37 test hundreds, England will be hoping to get him early when he tends to play across his front pad and is always a LBW culprit. If he gets in then England are going to get very bored of the sight of the Aussies skipper.

Lee:
Brett Lee has had a difficult couple of years but against the Lions this week showed what he can do on a pitch that appears to be good for batting on. His bowling performance in the last Ashes was exceptional at times and he will be looking to, in partnership with Mitchell Johnson, lead the Aussie bowling attack which can at times look a little bit one dimensional with no front line spinner. His batting also impressed in 2005 when he batted for long periods and along with Johnson will look to frustrate England late in the Australian innings. He also has the ability to lift his side at any time with his athleticism and enthusiasm, it might be a defining series for the man from New South Wales.

Tags: andrew flintoff, ashes predictions, australia, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, brett lee, cricket predictions, england, graeme swann, prediction exchange, Prediction Markets, rickey ponting, sports prediction markets, sports predictions Posted in Blog, Cricket, Prediction Markets, Sports, The Ashes 2009 |

Cricket Ashes 2009 Predictions: Tom Maxwell looks at England’s options ahead of the first test

By Tom Maxwell
July 3rd, 2009

We are less than a week from the first test in Cardiff and England are enjoying a dominant performance against Warwickshire whilst watching the Aussies struggle with both bat and ball against the England Lions.

Australia may have got to 358 in their first innings against a potent attack led by England hopefuls, Steve Harmison, Graham Onions and Tim Bresnan, but the majority of these runs were scored by two of their most experienced batsmen, Simon Katich and Mike Hussey. Australia will not want to rely solely on these two and Ricky Ponting to score all of their runs and will be looking particularly to vice-captain Michael Clarke (who really struggled in 2005 but has since started to fulfil his immense potential) and new superstar Phil Hughes. With no Andrew Symonds the middle order runs are expected to come from wicket keeper Brad Haddin and all rounder Marcus North. Neither of these two are particularly experienced and both have struggled for runs since arriving in England, this will be an area England will look to exploit.

An area Australia is particularly strong is their so called bowlers’ batting. Both Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson supply useful runs, with the later averaging over 30 in tests. England too have some good lower order batting, both Swann and Broad average over 30, but whether or not they will be able to deal with the pace and bounce of Australia’s fast bowlers is to be seen. The Australians will be severely hoping they do not sustain any injuries to their batters because the only other batsmen in their squad is the all rounder Shane Watson, who is also incredibly injury prone and this depth of squad in certainly an area that England will feel they have the upper hand in, injuries to senior players could leave Australia very short, where as England will feel that both Ian Bell and Owais Shah could come in and produce some good performances.

England’s worry when it comes to batting will be their middle order. At the top Strauss will need to perform to the levels he did in 2005 and Cook will need to continue his good form of the last month or so. Much will rest on the performances of Ravi Bopara and Kevin Pieterson at 3 and 4 and then we are through to the middle order of Collingwood, Prior and Flintoff. This will be an area that the Australians will look to jump all over and if they can get Mitchell Johnson firing at these three, especially early on, 150 for 3 could quickly turn into 180 for 6 and England could be on the back foot rather quickly.

In the bowling department Australia will be pleased with their fast bowlers, Lee, Johnson and Clarke and going to cause problems to any batting in the world, and they have good back up through Siddle and Hifenhaus. Their issues (and this is not something that we have said about the Aussies for the past twenty years) is that they have not got a spinner that will scare England. This will be particularly important in Cardiff in the first test which is expected to take plenty of turn. Nathan Hauritz will be their front line spinner and has struggled to make any impact against the county sides in the warm up games, Marcus North and Michael Clarke both bowl a bit of part time spin but Australia will be hoping that they are not needed to bowl long spells and only bowl in short bursts to give their seamers a rest.

England’s bowling will possibly be the area that decides the Ashes of 2009. Broad and Anderson have both looked great this year but against the West Indies and New Zealand who are not a patch on Australia. Graeme Swann is the top wicket-taker in test cricket this year, but particularly against the class of Ponting and Clarke, the latter being renowned as one of the best players of spin in the world, he may have to be very patient, and then there is Freddy. Flintoff has so much success four years ago, especially bowling at the left handers, and there will be plenty of them for him to get into, but is he fully fit and is he the same bowler he was four years ago? By the end of the first test these question will have been answered and we will have a better idea of whether this England bowling attack can take 20 wickets in every test this summer.

The final bowling place is still not decided upon. Panesar looks like he will get the nod in Cardiff, a spin friendly wicket, but Adil Rashid has put his name firmly in the selectors minds with a great bowling performance in the 20/20 World Cup and now runs for the Lions against the very attack England will be facing in Cardiff next week. It would be an incredibly bold move to put Rashid in, but imagine a lower order of Flintoff, Rashid, Broad, Swann and Anderson.

Lots of batting, but are there enough wickets. Speaking of wickets, Steve Harmison’s form for both the Lions and Durham will not have gone unnoticed and his success against the Aussies both in 2005 and this week for the Lions will put him in with a good chance of playing some part in the series. The other two bowlers who will be looking to take the extra spinners spot after Cardiff are Sidebottom, one of England’s most consistent performer over the last few years, and Graham Onions, a man who took wickets on his England debut earlier this year and could be perfect for certain pitches, especially at Headingley, where the swing is usually prodigious.

All of these question will be answered over the next couple of months, but there is no doubt it is going to be another cracking series. The teams are so well matched and the pitches will suit both teams at different times.

Likely starting line ups for Cardiff:
England: Strauss (C), Cook, Bopara, Pietersen, Collingwood, Flintoff, Prior (W), Broad, Swann, Anderson, Panesar

Australia: Hughes, Katich, Ponting (C), M Clarke, M Hussey, North, Haddin (W), M Johnson, Lee, Hauritz, Clark

Interesting bets:
Top England wicket taker: Panesar 18.0 (5% chance)
Top Series bowler: Swann 10.5 (10% chance)
Top Aussie Batsmen: Clarke 5.7 (18% chance)
England to win the first test: 4.2 (24% chance)

Tags: andrew strauss, ashes predictions, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, cricket predictions, prediction exchange, Prediction Markets, ricky ponting, sports predictions, The Ashes 2009 Posted in Blog, Cricket, Prediction Markets, Sports, The Ashes 2009 |

Big Brother Predictions: It’s game over for Shree in Friday’s eviction

By Tom Maxwell
July 2nd, 2009

29 days in and the Big Brother house is well and truly up and running, but for either Freddie or Sree it will come to a crushing end tomorrow as they face the public vote. Betfair Predicts’ self-confessed Big Brother addict Thomas Maxwell tells all…

Freddie has, in his short time in the house, become a bit of an expert in avoiding eviction, to be honest the only thing more surprising than Freddie being evicted tomorrow would be for him not to be up again next week. I’m not sure there has ever been a Big Brother contestant that has been so widely hated in the house but such a favourite out of it.

There is currently a 31% chance of him winning overall, making him clear favourite when compared to anyone else’s, yet he is up for eviction every single week. There is little chance of him walking out either, as he seems to revel in his position in the house as the disliked voice of reason, and therefore does not appear to be deterred by his housemates constantly voting for him to be up for the public vote.

Freddie’s job of avoiding eviction is made easier on this occasion because he is up against a man who has spent the last few weeks becoming more and more unpopular due to his unbearably immature behaviour.

The public have seen enough of his stalking, winging, blatant attention seeking and his inability to accept anyone else’s criticism. His behaviour around Noirin can only be described as disturbing and although some will feel sorry for him because he has naively walked into the traps left for him by Noirin’s other stalker, Marcus.

Even so his behaviour the other night during the 15 yard dash with Saivash, the sprinting equivalent of Eric the Eel, and the fallout from that showed that he was not ready to be called an ‘adult’ and the sooner Big Brother is rid of him the quicker we can get back to watching Noirin walking around without having to look over shoulder.

Interesting bet: Sree to get more than 90.01% of votes – 2.2 (a 45% chance)

Tags: Big Brother, big brother predictions, prediction exchange, Prediction Markets, reality tv predictions, specials, tv predictions Posted in Big Brother, Blog, Entertainment, Humor, Prediction Markets |

NFL Super Bowl Predictions: 2009-2010 season preview

By Tom Maxwell
July 2nd, 2009

Betfair Predicts NFL expert Tom Maxwell takes a look ahead to all things gridiron ahead of the new season…

As has been seen over the past couple of years the NFL is incredibly unpredictable. After two consecutive classic Super Bowls the season of 2010 has a lot to live up to, but with the possible change to the salary cap rules there is scope for another cracking season.

Could the Steelers do it again? Will Arizona build on their fairytale run? Will Tom Brady will be fit? Will Reggie Bush come to play? Will the Lions win a game? Another incredible season of NFL is on the horizon.

AFL:

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Super Bowl champions boast the best defence around and if their offence finds the form that it did during the crucial plays last year then they will once again be contenders. Mike Tomlin has kept almost exactly the same squad he had last season so expect them to be strong again.

Tennessee Titans
The Titans had an amazing season last year, coming from nowhere to barely lose a game, but their aging defence might cause them to go backwards this year.

New England Patriots
The most successful team of this decade will need to have their star quarterback Tom Brady fully fit for the whole campaign after missing out on most of last year, and although they are another team who are not getting any younger, they are still a potent force and have the experience to cause problems in the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers
The Chargers will hope to finally live up to their potential this year but will rely on their quarterback Phillip Rivers performing to the same level he did last year, throwing 34 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions. They will need to get off to a better start than in previous seasons and Norv Taylor will be reminding his team of this throughout their pre-season.

Other contenders
Dark horses may include the Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars. Any of these guys could put a run together and produce another fairytale Super Bowl like Arizona did last year.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Lions will be hoping to not end another season without a victory. Last year’s team broke all records for the worse season in NFL history, this year they have a new rookie quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who they took as the first pick in the draft, and have broken all records to pay him a reported $68 million over 6 years. There will be no expectations for the Lions but their new coach, Jim Schwartz, will be looking to build a team that are able to challenge in the coming years.

AFC:

New York Giants
Plenty of problems with their receiver position but should be strong enough to make it to the playoffs at least. Still a very dangerous team.

New Orleans Saints
Could well be a good shout for a Super Bowl place. It will be interesting to see which Reggie Bush turns up this year and whether Pierre Thomas can step up if Bush fails to get fit. If their defence stays strong they will have a really good year.

Chicago Bears
The city of Chicago will be extremely excited about the prospect of having this team aiming for the Super Bowl this year. The defence will be as good as it always is in Chicago but the excitement of their new quarterback and Pro-Bowler, Jay Cutler, should be enough to get the buzz going early in the season. Although he doesn’t have any world class receivers to aim for there should be enough to get them into the playoffs and perhaps carry them to their 10th Super Bowl title.

Arizona Cardinals
After such an incredible year last year there will be higher expectations of Ken Whisenhunt this time around. They should be there or thereabouts again but without an improvement to the running game they might struggle to get through the playoffs again.

Dark horses: Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks

My pick for the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints to beat Pittsburgh Steelers

Tags: AFC, AFC predictions, AFL, AFL predictions, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, Chicago Bears, gridiron predictions, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, new york giants, nfl, nfl predictions, Pittsburgh Steelers, prediction exchange, Prediction Markets, rizona Cardinals, San Diego Chargers, sports predictions, super bowl, super bowl predictions, Tennessee Titans Posted in Blog, Prediction Markets, Sports, nfl, super bowl |

Prediction Market Theory: How a book published in 1921 can help explain the 2008 Wall Street Crash!

By Leighton Vaughan-Williams
June 29th, 2009

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, explains it all…

Born and brought up on a farm in McLean County, Illinois, he claimed that the only reason he turned to economics was that plowing was too hard on the feet. Well, farming’s loss was economics’ gain, and Frank Hyneman Knight’s seminal volume, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, published in 1921, was to show just how great that gain was.

In this major contribution to economic thought, Knight makes an important distinction between insurable and uninsurable risks. According to Knight, profit—earned by the entrepreneur who makes decisions in an uncertain environment—is the entrepreneur’s reward for bearing uninsurable risk. Essentially, he was highlighting the distinction between measurable risk and what he terms ‘uncertainty’. The world of business, he argued, falls into the realm of this uncertainty, since it deals with “… situations which are far too unique for any sort of statistical tabulation to have any value for guidance. The conception of an objectively measurable probability or chance is simply inapplicable.”

What makes Knight’s insight so topical is that these ideas are particularly relevant to financial markets, where surprises occur regularly. For years Knight was ignored by the theorists of mainstream financial economics, who either didn’t know or didn’t care for Knights’ belief in “the sheer brute fact that the results of human activity cannot be anticipated”. Knight was perhaps over-stating his case, but the theorists who followed him, with their mathematical models of risk management, went to the diametrically opposite position, constructing a mathematically tractable universe in which rational agents can measure and value risk and return, and trade them with confidence.

In this alternative universe, risk can be reduced to statistical variance and forecasts of the future can be encapsulated in measurable probabilities. The implication is that economic agents are indeed rational, or failing that, act ‘as if” they are (the famous ‘as if” theorem first proposed by Milton Friedman in his 1953 ‘Essays in Positive Economics’). The other implication is that the financial world is ‘ergodic’, in the sense of possessing a stable, recurrent underlying structure.

In this alternative universe, all risk is insurable and the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market shouldn’t have been such a big deal. After all, the risk of that happening was insurable, wasn’t it? Of course it was, using so-called ‘credit default swaps’ (CDSs). In this context, these are basically bets (otherwise termed ‘private insurance contracts’) based on whether people will default on their mortgages. Unlike bookmakers and betting exchanges, those laying the bets were, however, unregulated and investment houses that sold them weren’t required to set aside funds sufficient to cover their potential liabilities. At their height, the nominal value of the CDSs was in excess of $63 trillion (63,000 billion dollars!). And when the ‘insurance’ was called in, the layers just didn’t have the money to pay.

Goodbye Bear Stearns, Goodbye Lehman Brothers, Goodbye conventional wisdom.

Could a well-constructed prediction market have predicted all this? I guess it depends who was placing the bets!

Tags: bear stearns, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, Betfair Prof, conventional wisdom, frank hyneman knight, lehman brothers, leighton vaughan williams, prediction exchange, Prediction Market Theory, Prediction Markets, risk uncertainty and profit, wall street crash Posted in Betfair Prof, Blog, Prediction Market Theory, Prediction Markets, Stock Market |

Cricket Ashes Predictions: Hughes and Bopara can have a massive say in Series outcome

By bettingbetfair
June 26th, 2009

Frank Gregan, writing on Betting@Betfair, looks at the different approaches England and Australia take in the lead-up to the start of the Ashes. Off the training ground that is.

England and Australia share a common tongue but use it in two very different ways. The English are typically reserved, gracious and tolerant whilst the Australians are loud, obnoxious and in your face! Thirty per cent of Australians bait the English. Add alcohol and that figure rises to sixty per cent and throw in a discussion about cricket or rugby and you are in the high nineties! They are never slow to put the English down at any opportunity and they are certainly trying their very best to intimidate Ravi Bopara in the lead up to the Ashes.

Most pundits agree that a critical battle during the forthcoming series will be between Bopara and the rookie Australian batsman Phillip Hughes. Both are young and establishing themselves at Test level, both are considered outstanding prospects and during this series both have the chance to become national heroes. The winner of this individual battle could well determine the destination of the little urn.

The Australians realise this and have gone for Bopara’s jugular. It is an Australian trait, pressure is not built by building expectations, pressure is built by casting aspirations and issuing a challenge. Shane Warne is the latest to follow Mitchell Johnson’s lead and have a pop at Bopara, declaring that Bopara’s three test tons on the trot are not the basis of pedigree.

Warne said last week: “Bopara is a good first-class cricketer, but he is not an international cricketer, I think he has got all the talent in the world, but I just don’t think he’s got the temperament.” He can be put off his game too easily and he’s too worried about how he looks.” Meow! When Bopara read that his blood must have been boiling but that is exactly what Warne was trying to achieve, it’s the Aussie way, wind them up and watch them crack!

When asked to comment on Warne’s comments Bopara said “I’ve always wanted to bat in the top order for my country. To do it against the best in the world will be a great challenge,” That’s the English way, polite and courteous on the outside, fuming away on the inside!

Phillip Hughes comes into this series with ringing endorsements from some of Australia’s finest. He has been compared to Steve Waugh by Justin Langer but probably the most significant comments have come from the former England fast bowler Angus Fraser, now the Director of Cricket at Middlesex which was where Hughes played earlier on in the season and had a great time scoring 574 runs at an average of 143.5! Fraser said, “It is an unfair comparison to make at this stage of his career but I feel he is a bit like Brian Lara.” No pressure there than! Quality - that’s the English way, respectful and complimentary but raising the expectation bar as high as it will go!

Only Ricky Ponting is shorter than Hughes in the top Aussie series bat market and the price available on the youngster is indicative of that expectation. Bopara has Strauss and Pietersen ahead of him in the English market but he is still too short to back.

Regardless of how the pressure is applied it will be there in bucket fulls for these two young batsmen as they walk to the crease for their first Ashes knock. The Aussies have given Bopara a verbal battering and the English are happy to let the expectation level surrounding Hughes rise and rise. It promises to be a great battle - I can’t wait!

Tags: ashes predictions, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, Cricket, cricket predictions, predictions, sports prediction markets, sports predictions, The Ashes 2009 Posted in Blog, Cricket, Sports, The Ashes 2009 |

Wimbledon Predictions: Murray nerves signal tough times ahead

By bettingbetfair
June 25th, 2009

Andy Murray’s first round win showed that the route to ending the 73 year wait for a male British winner at SW19 won’t be an easy one, says Ralph Ellis, writing on Betting@Betfair…

When Fred Perry won the first of his three Wimbledon titles in 1934, the BBC was still two years away from launching the world’s first television service. That saved millions of housewives sitting through the sort of nervy agony they have suffered in the last decade watching Tim Henman and now Andy Murray.

Britain’s latest big hope provided the Beeb with just what they wanted yesterday, a nervy match to collect increasing numbers of tea-time viewers before he finally got through the first round. And it’s already clear that for all the young Scotsman’s confidence, and the work he’s done on his fitness, strength and stamina, the route to ending the 73 year wait for a male British winner at SW19 won’t be an easy one.

Murray can talk all he likes about keeping his focus, about ignoring pressure, and about using the crowd as a positive rather than a negative. But there is one staring reality for him about this year’s Wimbledon - it might not be the first time he’s been Britain’s sole flag bearer, but it is the first time he’s been expected to carry that standard all the way to the final. And that is a massive task for him to come to terms with.

I was interested to read Greg Rusedski’s assessment in today’s Daily Mirror of the demands that Murray will face. “Murray looked nervous . . . If he was not feeling the weight of public expectation he would not be human,” writes the former world number four.

“The British public are not just hoping he can reach the final, they are expecting it. And I think that is more pressure than myself or Tim Henman ever faced in our home Grand Slam.”

It’s worth taking that context as you decide whether to put hard cash behind the patriotic bandwagon that has been rolling behind Murray ever since Rafael Nadal announced he wasn’t going to be fit enough to play. For any sportsman there’s a huge mental difference between wanting, hoping and believing he can win and expecting to win. And until you’ve crossed that divide and delivered the expectations then you never really know for sure if you can do it.

It’s why, to compare with another sport, Liverpool fell out of the title race the moment they were in front. They couldn’t handle the pressure of some of the straightforward home games they were expected to collect three points in. And it could also be why Henman fell at the last Wimbledon hurdle so often.

At least in the short term Murray proved in his first round win over Robert Kendrick that he could lift his game under pressure. He’ll have to do that again tomorrow because Latvian Ernests Gulbis is a dangerous opponent with the sort of attacking style that can get lucky on a grass court. And he should then justify his current odds to emerge victorious from his quarter of the draw.

After that it’s a different matter, and I’m afraid I’m opting to bet against him reaching the final. If the pressure of round one was enough to affect him, then just wait until a semi-final. And there any one of Andy Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Martin Del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko would be more than capable of staging an upset before he even gets to meet Roger Federer for the title itself.

Five things you might not know about Ernests Gulbis

1. Age 20, he already has more than a million dollars in prize money to his name - but that’s not too big a concern because he comes from a wealthy family. Dad Ainars is a millionaire investment banker and mum Milena a top theatre actress.

2. His paternal grandfather Alvils was one of the starting five players of the Soviet Union basketball team ASK Riga which won the European Championships.

3. His other grandfather Uldis Pucitis was a major movie actor and director, and Ernests has a love of films and literature from the 1970s.

4. He was coached by former Croatian star Niki Pilic since the age of 12, but recently moved to Karl Heinz Wetter.

5. He can speak Latvian, Russian, English and German.

Tags: andy murray, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, prediction exchange, Prediction Markets, Tennis, tennis predictions, tenns prediction markets, wimbledon predictions Posted in Blog, Sports, Tennis |

United States soccer team backed at 999-1 to win Confederations Cup

By Michael Robb
June 25th, 2009

THE United States have defied all the odds to get to the final of the Confederations Cup - literally.

Because a total of $51 has been bet on the USA to win the competition at the maximum odds of 999-1 on Betfair, meaning for every $1 bet placed you win $999 if they emerge victorious in the final.

This is not the first time the US have defied the odds in this competition, having traded at 699-1 (meaning $699 won for every $1 bet) to reach the semi-finals just a week ago when they needed to beat Egypt and overturn a six goal deficit, which miraculously happened as they defeated Egypt 3-0 and Brazil overcame Italy by the same scoreline.

Betfair spokesman Michael Robb said: “The USA have come from nowhere in the tournament this year, having been well beaten by Italy and Brazil in their first two matches. Their sensational win against Spain last night, however, means they’ve made it all the way to the final and will play either Brazil or South Africa on Sunday.

“Whichever side they end up playing there are sure to be some Betfair bettors praying for a US victory, with the small matter of $51,000 to be won if they do!”

Tags: Betfair, Betfair Predicts, Prediction Markets, Soccer, soccer predictions Posted in Blog, Prediction Markets, Soccer, Sports |

Ashes 2009 Predictions: Wales turning in England’s favour?

By bettingbetfair
June 24th, 2009

In series gone by, Shane Warne’s wizardry meant that pitches with turn in them favoured the Aussies. Not any more, says Ralph Ellis, writing on Betting@Betfair, as England prepare to name two slow bowlers for the opening Ashes test…

From the moment the schedule for this summer’s Ashes were announced, it seemed to make no sense at all to start the series in Cardiff. It’s England versus Australia, for heaven’s sakes, so why play in Wales? And why begin the most eagerly awaited contest in international cricket in a new and far flung venue?

But with a couple of weeks to go now, it’s starting to look as if there could be a little twist - or rather a spin - to that decision. The pitch at the SWALEC Stadium is showing signs of taking turn and ironically that could be a massive home advantage as the Aussies for the first time in years don’t have the beguiling, devastating bowling of Shane Warne to rely on.

England’s captain Andrew Strauss, in contrast, will have three slow bowlers in his squad and the signs are that two of them will play in the opening match. Graeme Swann’s inclusion was pretty much a given after his excellent winter, but between now and July 8, when the action begins for real, there’s a chance for cult hero Monty Panesar to return to the fold.

The Northants left-armer was the surprise inclusion yesterday when England’s National selector Geoff Miller announced the 16-man squad for the Ashes series, plus the team that will play Warwickshire at Edgbaston in a warm-up match next week. That looks very much like the favoured starting XI for the Ashes, and Panesar is in while Yorkshire’s emerging leg-spinner Adil Rashid is kept back in the England Lions side that will play Australia at Worcester.

On the face of it recalling Panesar is a huge gamble. Rashid showed promise in the Twenty20 games and has the huge advantage of being close to a genuine all-rounder because his batting is a major strength, while Monty could be most kindly described as a genuine number 11. Add to that the fact that after his dramatic introduction to international cricket, the Northants man has gradually lost his way, and has done little in the county game this year to justify his return with just six wickets to his name. But there’s a saying that form is temporary and class is permanent, and on that basis he could just emerge as an Ashes hero.

The thing about him is that, for all that his statistics this year don’t suggest it, he takes big wickets in big situations. He’s a bowler who has the magic ingredient of being able to break up big stands, and in Test cricket that counts. I’m even tempted to back him to be our top bowler in the series. And as for his batting, who cares? There’s too much attention paid to trying to get bits and pieces out of players when what you need is world class specialist performances.

England remain massive outsiders for the Ashes, currently on 27 percent, but curiously the Aussies are not such heavy favourites to start the campaign with a win. They are on 43 percent to be victorious in Cardiff, with England at 26 percent and the draw 32 percent.

Five things you might not know about Adil Rashid:

1. Born in Bradford in 1988 he went to Heaton School - where they didn’t play cricket

2. He took up the game aged eight because his Pakistani born dad Abdul was a big fan, who bowled leg spin for a local club

3. He joined Yorkshire’s Academy as a batsman, but coach Terry Jenner encouraged him to develop his bowling and he quickly proved he was a natural.

4. He names his cricket heroes as Shane Warne and Tendulkar

5. He’s been recruited by Bradford’s health authority to front a campaign to help Asian taxi drivers in the city to stop smoking

Tags: adil rashid, ashes 2009, ashes predictions, cricket predictions, predicting sports, predicting the ashes, Prediction Markets, shane warne, sports predictions Posted in Blog, Cricket, Prediction Markets, Sports, The Ashes 2009 |

The Ashes 2009 Predictions: LIVE market tracker now online at Betfair Predicts

By Michael Robb
June 23rd, 2009

Check it out: http://predicts.betfair.com/sports/the-ashes-2009/

Tags: ashes 2009 predictions, australia, Betfair, Betfair Predicts, Cricket, cricket predictions, england, england v australia, Prediction Markets, sports predictions, the ashes Posted in Blog, Cricket, Prediction Markets, Sports, The Ashes 2009 |