NFL Week 13 Betting: Can beauty Brees shred the Bucs’ beast again?

By Andy Richmond
November 29th, 2008

An extended NFL week sees another triple header hit our screens on Sunday night and boy are all these games close to call, says Andy Richmond.

Lots of teams have no margin for error now if they are to make the post season. All of the following still in with a chance…………….

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

New Orleans travel to divisional rivals Tampa Bay, full of confidence after their impressive 51-29 win on Monday Night Football - Drew Brees once again dismantling a highly rated pass defence - the 3rd ranked Packers - with a 323 yard and 4TD display. QB Brees meets the second ranked pass defence in the NFL this time but if the last meeting is anything to go by the result could well be the same - he shredded the Bucs for 343 yards and three deep TD passes of 39, 84, and 43 yards. Throw in the return of RB Reggie Bush from injury and you have a very potent Saints offence coming at you here.

Tampa Bay, however, have improved since that first meeting, being 5-0 at home for the first time in franchise history, 8-3 sees them top the NFC South and they will want to win this one as they face divisional rivals Carolina and Atlanta on the road in the next two weeks - games which will definitely decide their fate.

This game is a bit like beauty and the beast, the Saints offence game has been beautiful to watch, well apart from Monday when this Packers fan had to sit and suffer as Brees went to work. He’ll have to be at his beat again as the Tampa Bay secondary has tightened since that last meeting way back in Week One - not allowing more than 247 pass yards since that occasion. The return of Bush would help greatly as it will bring much needed balance to the Saints offence.

I mentioned the beast and that could mean two elements when applied to the Bucs - the offence still has issues, don’t be fooled by the 38 point tally last week - firstly that was against the Lions (enough said) and 14 of those points came from special teams and the defence. This is an ugly offence - the backfield lacks depth and there are few big play targets in the passing game but QB Garcia keeps it simple and gets the job done. The defence is a beast, ranking highly on all facets of the game; they have allowed Tampa Bay to get in this 8-3 position.

Can Brees pick apart another defence? - If he can then the Saints are back in the divisional race and too big a price for this match up.

Recommendation: Underdog time get with the Saints to cause an upset - 2.8 match odds or with +3.5 at 2.12 - your choice and don’t forget you always have trading options.

Atlanta at San Diego

The main storyline in this clash is Falcons RB Michael Turner and his return to San Diego where he played backup to LaDainian Tomlinson for four seasons. Turner has stepped out of LT’s shadow this year to headline one of the overachieving teams of the year - whilst the Chargers have been the exact opposite, although to illustrate the fine lines in the NFL, the Chargers seven losses have been by an average of four points.

Another success for the Falcons has been rookie QB Matt Ryan - this offence has been incredibly efficient and they meet a very porous Chargers pass defence on Sunday which should give Ryan the opportunity to use his main pass receiver Roddy White, the Chargers D being better run stuffers than pass stoppers, that may just give Turner a more competitive outing this week.

The Chargers are still incredibly in the post season race but only just, the Falcons may just have to extend their winning streak over the Charger to five - another close one.

Recommendation: Much closer than the oddsmakers suggest, once again the underdog can have its day - Falcons 2.9 or +5.5 at 1.9 making this a similar contest to the opening game.

Chicago at Minnesota

Another divisional clash where it will be a fine line between success and failure - both teams come off impressive road victories and the outright lead in the NFC North is at stake here.

I’d be surprised if we get a repeat of the Bears 48-41 barn burner victory back in Week Seven - but I will predict that this will see a head to head between both the Vikings and Bears running games, with Matt Forte (Bears) and Adrian Peterson (Vikings) the major players - both defences handle the run well, the edge given slightly to the Vikings.

Therefore whilst the run will form the basis of this game in both execution and prevention, it will be the team which gets the other parts of the game done best that will come out on top, to my mind the Bears have just that little bit more about them offensively certainly in the QB department where Vikings QB Frerotte looks shaky at times.

Once again another game where the odds should be closer than they are and I’m going for the Bears to scrape a tight one in Minnesota.

Recommendation:

Repeat…..of above - odds should be closer and for the third time it’s the underdog Bears at 2.66 as the value call or take some handicap insurance with the Bears +3.5 at 1.9.

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