How Barack Obama Won The Presidency
By Michael Robb
November 5th, 2008
The highs and lows of Betfair’s “Next President” market
Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States of America – a result correctly predicted by Betfair customers back in February following the Super Tuesday primaries.
Betfair’s betting markets have so far traded a total of $57 million over the course of the election campaign. They also foresaw Obama’s victories in most of the key swing states on polling day – only Missouri appears to have failed to fall to the Democrats – as Republican candidate John McCain endured a torrid night.
Obama is already being given a 60% chance on Betfair of being elected for a second term in 2012.
This is how Barack Obama’s fortunes changed on Betfair…
A) January 3: Obama wins in Iowa, propelling him into the lead for the Democratic nomination
Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 15%
B) January 8: The lead is short-lived as Hillary Clinton pulls off a shock win in New Hampshire
Barack Obama: 25%
John McCain: 15%
C) February 5: John McCain secures the Republican nomination after Super Tuesday
Barack Obama: 30%
John McCain: 33%
D) May 2: Barack Obama finally looks to have secured his party’s nomination following a primary win in North Carolina
Barack Obama: 56%
John McCain: 35%
E) September 4: The “Palin Bounce” starts a period of recovery for the McCain campaign
Barack Obama: 62%
John McCain: 38%
F) September 15: The bounce did not last. From the day investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the gap grew increasingly wider
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 45%
Betting Highs & Lows:
- Obama traded at a high of 13-2 for small money
- McCain traded at a low of 6-5 (over $180,000 was matched at 5-4 or less)
- Total amount traded on all Betfair markets during this election campaign (as at 12:00am EST, 11/5/08) - $57 million
