The market calls Obama the clear winner

By Joe Seither
October 7th, 2008

Betfair’s customers are calling Obama a clear winner.

This chart shows the probability that each of the presidential candidates will win the election. [Updated] And Obama is 60% ahead. Repeat 60%, and growing.

Polls reflect respondents’ desires and hopes, rather than a logical assessment of who will win the election, based on an analysis of the electoral college.

On the other hand, real money markets only attract participants who think they have enough knowledge to benefit from accurately predicting the election outcome, ie they understand the electoral college, and have researched the state by state standings of each candidate. And, in Betfair’s market, opposing viewpoints are matched in real time, giving instant feedback to pundits and election junkies.

The data suggests that at this point no gaffe or gimmick in the league of either “lipstick on a pitbull” or “lipstick on a pig” would substantially change the outcome.

However, if you want to see the latest real time prediction on who will be the likely winner, come back and check out the most reliable source for election predictions.

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